Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.186889 0.223004 0.265835 0.320834 0.390238 0.475789 5.905959e-01
2025-08-03 0.149389 0.195269 0.256217 0.344862 0.473518 0.658376 9.535507e-01
2025-08-10 0.117890 0.166078 0.236480 0.350642 0.538869 0.852099 1.449020e+00
2025-08-17 0.092263 0.138422 0.211577 0.342208 0.584479 1.049129 2.110979e+00
2025-08-24 0.077174 0.122938 0.201413 0.355737 0.679192 1.403435 3.448541e+00
2025-08-31 0.065233 0.109663 0.191530 0.367838 0.784398 1.878316 5.783995e+00
2025-09-07 0.056027 0.098944 0.183489 0.382115 0.910793 2.551604 1.020254e+01
2025-09-14 0.048561 0.089678 0.175811 0.395534 1.053014 3.479715 1.881440e+01
2025-09-21 0.041304 0.079120 0.162489 0.390608 1.147484 4.429758 3.277538e+01
2025-09-28 0.032692 0.063912 0.134737 0.336455 1.047528 4.450467 4.061433e+01
2025-10-05 0.029208 0.059076 0.130182 0.347115 1.197963 6.080036 8.518235e+01
2025-10-12 0.026795 0.056111 0.129480 0.370224 1.431822 8.961088 2.255185e+02
2025-10-19 0.024512 0.053167 0.128644 0.395973 1.735510 13.916424 8.154522e+02
2025-10-26 0.022224 0.049721 0.125523 0.413390 2.041917 21.156299 3.858048e+03
2025-11-02 0.019701 0.045145 0.117826 0.409625 2.234343 29.111186 2.140470e+04
2025-11-09 0.017236 0.040231 0.107757 0.391024 2.312572 36.772970 1.584283e+05
2025-11-16 0.015715 0.037567 0.104091 0.399893 2.642732 56.384189 7.773996e+07
2025-11-23 0.014376 0.035140 0.100532 0.407974 3.011110 88.431460 NaN
2025-11-30 0.013255 0.033111 0.097764 0.419229 3.471830 147.132889 NaN
2025-12-07 0.012259 0.031256 0.095096 0.430101 3.997398 254.896665 NaN
2025-12-14 0.011139 0.028817 0.089595 0.421354 4.272953 383.419440 NaN
2025-12-21 0.009541 0.024668 0.076632 0.359862 3.637210 321.947781 NaN
2025-12-28 0.008935 0.023514 0.074996 0.369565 4.173063 598.019698 NaN